Comments on: MOCOM 2020 – Future Vision Video

By: Antonio Peña

Antonio Peña — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:58:00 +0000

Excellent, video I have just finish the spanish translation. I hope you like it.

Cheers,
Tony

By: Jan Michael Hess

Jan Michael Hess — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:20:06 +0000

I do not agree with many of your predictions and I think your predictions are not consistent. If you want to say when new services are introduced first on a global scale, e.g. 3G Japan in 2001, you should predict new innovations consistently.

NFC-based Mobile Payment was commercially launched in July 2004 by NTT DoCoMo in Japan. Your prediction is 2015 for mobile payment.

If you talk about downlink data speeds for Mobile Broadband, please call it megabit per second and not “50 Megabyte”. Mobile Broadband LTE candidate will be launched first by the Japanese in 2011 or 2012.

From 2012-2020 all predictions become extremely difficult as one can see in your video.

I am sure you can make a better video that is more consistent and realistic. If you cannot pinpoint a year when new things are happen, then use a period, e.g. between 2015 and 2020.

Finally, I recommend that you predict “critical mass penentrations” (20-25% or more) that take into account how long it takes to reach 25% of users after having launched something commercially.

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